Truist earns $1.16 a share on a clean view while shedding weak loans. At $47.07 I see 18% upside to $55.55 on $5.05 of 2027 profit.
Key points
- $1.16 a share for September quarter of clean profit shows core earnings power without one-time sales.
- $31.90 a share in September 2026 of tangible book value (net worth without goodwill) anchors value at 1.5 times.
- $1 billion for December quarter of buybacks (company repurchases of its shares) plus dividends rewards patience.
The call
Market expects stagnation. At $47.07 a share today the stock pays about 10 times clean profit for 2026. It also pays about 1.5 times tangible book value (net worth without goodwill) in September 2026. That math needs only flat profit and low teens percent returns in 2027.
Adjusted revenue steadies after portfolio sales ($ billions)- Revenue, reported
- Revenue, mine
Company releases Oct 2024-Oct 2026; Q4 FY26E onward my estimates; Sep-26 uses adjusted TE revenue.
I expect cleaner growth to win. I forecast $5.05 a share for 2027 on better loans and fewer shares. At 11 times profit for 2027 the shares reach my target. The strategy plan due in January 2027 can prove the turn.
From $4.65 to $5.05 of profit per shareMy estimates; starts at 2026E $4.65 and bridges to 2027E $5.05.
Valuation
| Measure | Figure |
|---|
| 2026 clean profit | $4.65 a share for 2026 |
| 2027 profit, mine | $5.05 a share for 2027 |
| Fair multiple | 11 times for 2027 |
| Target in twelve months | $55.55 a share by October 2027 |
| Eleven times for 2027 matches large regional banks with mid teens percent returns in 2027. The 4.4% dividend yield for next twelve months plus buybacks cushions the wait. Upside of 18% by October 2027 against small downside supports a buy. | |
Risks
- Loan losses spread beyond sold loans in 2026, seen if net charge-offs (failed loans written off) rise above 0.5% in any quarter of 2027.
- Deposit costs stay high through 2027, seen if lending margin (gap between loan yield and funding cost) falls below 2.9% in any quarter of 2027.
- The January 2027 plan disappoints on costs, seen if tangible book value (net worth without goodwill) stays flat through June 2027 with no buyback rise.
What would change my mind
Core profit below $4.60 a share for 2027 or bad loans rising while deposits shrink through mid 2027 would end the call.