Visa can grow earnings about 11% next year on volume, services and buybacks. At 27 times that figure the stock is near $383, only a few percent above today’s close.
Key points
- $11.6 billion of fiscal Q3 net revenue, up 14%, on 10% payments volume and 10% processed transactions.
- $3.32 non-GAAP diluted EPS in that quarter, up 11%; nine-month non-GAAP EPS was $9.79.
- 1.88 billion Class A-equivalent shares at June 30, down from 1.93 billion, with $28.4 billion of buyback capacity left.
The call
The $371.80 price needs about $13.80 of fiscal 2027 non-GAAP earnings if the multiple stays near 27 times, or mid-teens growth if the multiple compresses. That is a full year of mid-teens EPS growth after management already lifted fiscal 2026 guidance to the low end of mid-teens.
I expect closer to $14.20 of fiscal 2027 EPS on 11% revenue growth and 2% share shrink. That supports $383 in twelve months, a few percent above the close, so the stock should track the market, not beat it.
Net revenue ($ billions)GAAP net revenue from SEC filings through Q3 FY26; FY26E–FY27E are this desk. As of Oct 8, 2026.
Valuation
| Item | Figure |
|---|
| Fiscal 2026E net revenue | $45.5 billion |
| Fiscal 2027E net revenue | $50.2 billion |
| Fiscal 2027E non-GAAP EPS | $14.20 |
| Multiple on that EPS | 27 times |
| 12-month target | $383 |
Twenty-seven times is in line with a high-60s operating-margin network that still grows volume in the low double digits. Upside to $420 needs either 30 times or $15.50 of EPS; downside to $340 is a 24 times multiple if volume slows to high single digits. That band is too tight for a buy or a sell.
Non-GAAP diluted EPS by quarter ($)Company-reported non-GAAP EPS from earnings releases. This desk FY27 run-rate $3.55. As of Oct 8, 2026.
Risks
- Client incentives stay at 18% growth and eat net revenue if issuers demand more for volume.
- A DOJ debit ruling or a final merchant settlement that cuts U.S. debit economics.
- Cross-border travel or FX volatility fades after World Cup-related spending.
What would change my mind
Fiscal 2027 guidance that puts non-GAAP EPS growth back in the mid-teens with stable incentives would justify a higher multiple and a buy.